Nigeria Premier Football League · Round 13 · Ilorin Township Stadium
Kick-off in your time, where to watch, the shape of both sides and a selection we record in public.
- 16:00 WAT · Nigeria
- 18:00 EAT · Kenya
- 17:00 SAST · South Africa
- 15:00 GMT · Ghana
- 18:00 EAT · Uganda
2 · Probabilities
The model’s numbers
- KWU
- 39%
- fair 2.55
- Draw
- 29%
- fair 3.47
- RIV
- 32%
- fair 3.12
Expected goals 1.19 v 1.04; most likely score 1-1; form sample 5 and 5 matches.
3 · Selection
The model call
Model call
Double chance: Kwara United or Draw- Model probability
- 68%
- Confidence
- Confident
- at or above the model’s 60% floor
- Reference price
- None
- probability-only until the odds feed
- Published
- 2026-11-12
- model v1.3.0
Every market, from the same scoreline grid
| Market | Pick | Prob. | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Kwara United or Draw | 68% | confident |
| Over 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | confident |
| Under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 61% | confident |
| Over under goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 61% | confident |
| Draw no bet | Kwara United (draw no bet) | 55% | below the floor |
| Both teams to score | Both Teams to Score | 45% | below the floor |
| Match result (1X2) | Kwara United to win | 39% | below the floor |
| Over 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 39% | below the floor |
| Half time full time | Draw / Kwara United | 34% | long shot |
| Win to nil | Kwara United to win to nil | 24% | long shot |
| Score draw | Score draw | 18% | long shot |
| Btts and win | Kwara United to win and both teams to score | 15% | long shot |
| Correct score | 1-1 | 13% | long shot |
| Nil nil draw | 0-0 draw | 11% | long shot |
How double chance settles. A model call beside the day’s published selection, settled in public like every other number here.
18+. Gambling helplines for Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Ghana and Uganda are on each country’s betting guide. Probabilities are the model\u2019s own numbers, never a promise.
4 · Evidence and team news
Expected line-ups
Line-ups appear here about an hour before kick-off, as soon as the feed carries them.
5 · Market explanation
Double chance
Cover two of the three outcomes at a shorter price. Read the guide.
6 · Betting options
Where you can act on it
7 · Methodology and record
How this call was made
Model v1.3.0 · desk Wanjiru Kamau · methodology · our full record · Kwara United v Rivers United head-to-head