FKF Premier League · Round 7 ·
Kick-off in your time, where to watch, the shape of both sides and a selection we record in public.
- 13:00 WAT · Nigeria
- 15:00 EAT · Kenya
- 14:00 SAST · South Africa
- 12:00 GMT · Ghana
- 15:00 EAT · Uganda
2 · Probabilities
The model’s numbers
- MUR
- 52%
- fair 1.93
- Draw
- 24%
- fair 4.21
- MAT
- 25%
- fair 4.08
Expected goals 1.73 v 1.12; most likely score 1-1; form sample 5 and 5 matches.
3 · Selection
The model call
Model call
Over 1.5 goals: Over 1.5 Goals- Model probability
- 78%
- Confidence
- Outside the floor
- shown for the record, not a selection
- Reference price
- None
- probability-only until the odds feed
- Published
- 2026-11-12
- model v1.3.0
Every market, from the same scoreline grid
| Market | Pick | Prob. | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | below the floor |
| Double chance | Murang'a SEAL or Draw | 75% | below the floor |
| Draw no bet | Murang'a SEAL (draw no bet) | 68% | below the floor |
| Both teams to score | Both Teams to Score | 55% | below the floor |
| Over 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | below the floor |
| Over under goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | below the floor |
| Match result (1X2) | Murang'a SEAL to win | 52% | below the floor |
| Under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 46% | below the floor |
| Half time full time | Draw / Murang'a SEAL | 31% | long shot |
| Win to nil | Murang'a SEAL to win to nil | 27% | long shot |
| Btts and win | Murang'a SEAL to win and both teams to score | 25% | long shot |
| Score draw | Score draw | 18% | long shot |
| Correct score | 1-1 | 11% | long shot |
| Nil nil draw | 0-0 draw | 6% | long shot |
How over 1.5 goals settles. A model call beside the day’s published selection, settled in public like every other number here.
18+. Gambling helplines for Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Ghana and Uganda are on each country’s betting guide. Probabilities are the model\u2019s own numbers, never a promise.
4 · Evidence and team news
Expected line-ups
Line-ups appear here about an hour before kick-off, as soon as the feed carries them.
6 · Betting options
Where you can act on it
7 · Methodology and record
How this call was made
Model v1.3.0 · desk Wanjiru Kamau · methodology · our full record · Murang'a SEAL v Mathare United head-to-head