Copa del Rey · 1st Round · Estadio Santo Domingo
Kick-off in your time, where to watch, the shape of both sides and a selection we record in public.
- 19:00 WAT · Nigeria
- 21:00 EAT · Kenya
- 20:00 SAST · South Africa
- 18:00 GMT · Ghana
- 21:00 EAT · Uganda
1 · Football assessment
The game in brief
Key takeaways
- Kick-off 19:00 WAT, 21:00 EAT, 20:00 SAST.
- The model's call is Over 1.5 Goals at 77%, the Bet of the Day.
- Automated summary: the full preview, when written, sits in the evidence section.
Automated desk summary from the feed and the model, written before kick-off and never edited after it. Navalcarnero play Real Betis in the Copa del Rey (1st Round) on 2026-11-12 at Estadio Santo Domingo, kick-off 19:00 WAT in Lagos, 21:00 EAT in Nairobi, 20:00 SAST in Johannesburg, 18:00 GMT in Accra, 21:00 EAT in Kampala.
The model's call is Over 1.5 Goals at 77%, the Bet of the Day. The model reads expected goals 1.44 for Navalcarnero and 1.36 for Real Betis, 2.79 in all; home win 39%, draw 25%, away win 36%. Probabilities are the model's own numbers from both sides' results over the last year, the venue split and the head-to-head; there is no reference price yet.
Form
Navalcarnero have no completed match on the feed yet this season.
Real Betis form, most recent first: W 2-0 at elche; W 2-1 v malaga; D 0-0 at celta-de-vigo; L 2-5 v Barcelona; W 5-2 v osasuna; D 1-1 at deportivo-a-coruna.
Table and Head-to-Head
Neither side is in a league table the feed carries for this competition.
The feed holds no earlier meeting between the two.
The Markets
Most likely on the market list: Over 1.5 Goals 77%; Navalcarnero or Draw 64%; Both Teams to Score 57%; Over 2.5 Goals 53%; Over 2.5 Goals 53%.
Every probability is a model read, never a promise. Bet only what you can afford to lose; 18+ only.
FAQ
What time is Navalcarnero v Real Betis?
Kick-off is 19:00 WAT in Lagos, 21:00 EAT in Nairobi, 20:00 SAST in Johannesburg, 18:00 GMT in Accra, 21:00 EAT in Kampala on 2026-11-12.
What is the model call for Navalcarnero v Real Betis?
Over 1.5 Goals at 77%. The model reads expected goals 1.44 for Navalcarnero and 1.36 for Real Betis, 2.79 in all; home win 39%, draw 25%, away win 36%.
Where can I watch it?
The broadcaster for each country appears in the kick-off block above as soon as the feed carries it.
What is the head-to-head record?
The feed holds no earlier meeting between the two.
Written by The data desk, 2026-11-12.
2 · Probabilities
The model’s numbers
- NAV
- 39%
- fair 2.56
- Draw
- 25%
- fair 3.95
- BET
- 36%
- fair 2.81
Expected goals 1.44 v 1.36; most likely score 1-1; form sample 0 and 5 matches (thin sample, so no confident call).
3 · Selection
Bet of the Day
Bet of the Day
Over 1.5 goals: Over 1.5 Goals- Model probability
- 77%
- Confidence
- Outside the floor
- shown for the record, not a selection
- Reference price
- None
- probability-only until the odds feed
- Published
- 2026-11-12
- model v1.3.0
Every market, from the same scoreline grid
| Market | Pick | Prob. | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | below the floor |
| Double chance | Navalcarnero or Draw | 64% | below the floor |
| Both teams to score | Both Teams to Score | 57% | below the floor |
| Over 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | below the floor |
| Over under goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | below the floor |
| Draw no bet | Navalcarnero (draw no bet) | 52% | below the floor |
| Under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 47% | below the floor |
| Match result (1X2) | Navalcarnero to win | 39% | below the floor |
| Half time full time | Draw / Navalcarnero | 28% | long shot |
| Win to nil | Navalcarnero to win to nil | 20% | long shot |
| Btts and win | Navalcarnero to win and both teams to score | 19% | long shot |
| Score draw | Score draw | 19% | long shot |
| Correct score | 1-1 | 12% | long shot |
| Nil nil draw | 0-0 draw | 6% | long shot |
How over 1.5 goals settles. Bet of the Day is the one published selection and enters the record.
18+. Gambling helplines for Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Ghana and Uganda are on each country’s betting guide. Probabilities are the model\u2019s own numbers, never a promise.
4 · Evidence and team news
Expected line-ups
Line-ups appear here about an hour before kick-off, as soon as the feed carries them.
6 · Betting options
Where you can act on it
7 · Methodology and record
How this call was made
Model v1.3.0 · desk Wanjiru Kamau · methodology · our full record · Navalcarnero v Real Betis head-to-head